A funny thing happened to us on the way to the future. The internet went from being something exotic to being boring utility, like mains electricity or running water – and we never really noticed. So we wound up being totally dependent on a system about which we are terminally incurious. You think I exaggerate about the dependence? Well, just ask Estonia, one of the most internet-dependent countries on the planet, which in 2007 was more or less shut down for two weeks by a sustained attack on its network infrastructure. Or imagine what it would be like if, one day, you suddenly found yourself unable to book flights, transfer funds from your bank account, check bus timetables, send email, search Google, call your family using Skype, buy music from Apple or books from Amazon, buy or sell stuff on eBay, watch clips on YouTube or BBC programmes on the iPlayer – or do the 1,001 other things that have become as natural as breathing.
The internet has quietly infiltrated our lives, and yet we seem to be remarkably unreflective about it. That's not because we're short of information about the network; on the contrary, we're awash with the stuff. It's just that we don't know what it all means. We're in the state once described by that great scholar of cyberspace, Manuel Castells, as "informed bewilderment".
Mainstream media don't exactly help here, because much – if not most – media coverage of the net is negative. It may be essential for our kids' education, they concede, but it's riddled with online predators, seeking children to "groom" for abuse. Google is supposedly "making us stupid" and shattering our concentration into the bargain. It's also allegedly leading to an epidemic of plagiarism. File sharing is destroying music, online news is killing newspapers, and Amazon is killing bookshops. The network is making a mockery of legal injunctions and the web is full of lies, distortions and half-truths. Social networking fuels the growth of vindictive "flash mobs" which ambush innocent columnists such as Jan Moir. And so on.
All of which might lead a detached observer to ask: if the internet is such a disaster, how come 27% of the world's population (or about 1.8 billion people) use it happily every day, while billions more are desperate to get access to it?
So how might we go about getting a more balanced view of the net ? What would you really need to know to understand the internet phenomenon? Having thought about it for a while, my conclusion is that all you need is a smallish number of big ideas, which, taken together, sharply reduce the bewilderment of which Castells writes so eloquently.
But how many ideas? In 1956, the psychologist George Miller published a famous paper in the journal Psychological Review. Its title was "The Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on our Capacity for Processing Information" and in it Miller set out to summarise some earlier experiments which attempted to measure the limits of people's short-term memory. In each case he reported that the effective "channel capacity" lay between five and nine choices. Miller did not draw any firm conclusions from this, however, and contented himself by merely conjecturing that "the recurring sevens might represent something deep and profound or be just coincidence". And that, he probably thought, was that.
But Miller had underestimated the appetite of popular culture for anything with the word "magical' in the title. Instead of being known as a mere aggregator of research results, Miller found himself identified as a kind of sage — a discoverer of a profound truth about human nature. "My problem," he wrote, "is that I have been persecuted by an integer. For seven years this number has followed me around, has intruded in my most private data, and has assaulted me from the pages of our most public journals… Either there really is something unusual about the number or else I am suffering from delusions of persecution."
But in fact, the basic idea that emerges from Miller's 1956 paper seems to have stood the test of time. The idea is that our short-term memory can only hold between five and nine "chunks" of information at any given moment (here a chunk is defined as a "meaningful unit"). So, when trying to decide how many big ideas about the internet would be meaningful for most readers, it seemed sensible to settle for a magical total of nine. So here they are.
1 TAKE THE LONG VIEW
The strange thing about living through a revolution is that it's very difficult to see what's going on. Imagine what it must have been like being a resident of St Petersburg in 1917, in the months before Lenin and the Bolsheviks finally seized power. It's clear that momentous events are afoot; there are all kinds of conflicting rumours and theories, but nobody knows how things will pan out. Only with the benefit of hindsight will we get a clear idea of what was going on. But the clarity that hindsight bestows is also misleading, because it understates how confusing things appeared to people at the time.
So it is with us now. We're living through a radical transformation of our communications environment. Since we don't have the benefit of hindsight, we don't really know where it's taking us. And one thing we've learned from the history of communications technology is that people tend to overestimate the short-term impact of new technologies — and to underestimate their long-term implications.
We see this all around us at the moment, as would-be savants, commentators, writers, consultants and visionaries tout their personal interpretations of what the internet means for business, publishing, retailing, education, politics and the future of civilisation as we know it. Often, these interpretations are compressed into vivid slogans, memes or aphorisms: information "wants to be free"; the "long tail" is the future of retailing; "Facebook just seized control of the internet", and so on. These kinds of slogans are really just short-term extrapolations from yesterday's or today's experience. They tell us little about where the revolution we're currently living through is heading. The question is: can we do any better — without falling into the trap of feigning omniscience?
Here's a radical idea: why not see if there's anything to be learned from history? Because mankind has lived through an earlier transformation in its communications environment, brought about by the invention of printing by movable type. This technology changed the world — indeed, it shaped the cultural environment in which most of us grew up. And the great thing about it, from the point of view of this essay, is that we can view it with the benefit of hindsight. We know what happened.
A thought experiment
So let's conduct what the Germans call a Gedankenexperiment — a thought experiment. Imagine that the net represents a similar kind of transformation in our communications environment to that wrought by printing. What would we learn from such an experiment?
The first printed bibles emerged in 1455 from the press created by Johannes Gutenberg in the German city of Mainz. Now, imagine that the year is 1472 — ie 17 years after 1455. Imagine, further, that you're the medieval equivalent of a Mori pollster, standing on the bridge in Mainz with a clipboard in your hand and asking pedestrians a few questions. Here's question four: On a scale of one to five, where one indicates "Not at all likely" and five indicates "Very likely", how likely do you think it is that Herr Gutenberg's invention will:
(a) Undermine the authority of the Catholic church?
(b) Power the Reformation?
(c) Enable the rise of modern science?
(d) Create entirely new social classes and professions?
(e) Change our conceptions of "childhood" as a protected early period in a person's life?
On a scale of one to five! You have only to ask the questions to realise the fatuity of the idea. Printing did indeed have all of these effects, but there was no way that anyone in 1472, in Mainz (or anywhere else for that matter) could have known how profound its impact would be.
I'm writing this in 2010, which is 17 years since the web went mainstream. If I'm right about the net effecting a transformation in our communications environment comparable to that wrought by Gutenberg, then it's patently absurd for me (or anyone else) to pretend to know what its long-term impact will be. The honest answer is that we simply don't know.
The trouble is, though, that everybody affected by the net is demanding an answer right now. Print journalists and their employers want to know what's going to happen to their industry. Likewise the music business, publishers, television networks, radio stations, government departments, travel agents, universities, telcos, airlines, libraries and lots of others. The sad truth is that they will all have to learn to be patient. And, for some of them, by the time we know the answers to their questions, it will be too late.
2 THE WEB ISN'T THE NET
The most common — and still surprisingly widespread — misconception is that the internet and the web are the same thing. They're not. A good way to understand this is via a railway analogy. Think of the internet as the tracks and signalling, the infrastructure on which everything runs. In a railway network, different kinds of traffic run on the infrastructure — high-speed express trains, slow stopping trains, commuter trains, freight trains and (sometimes) specialist maintenance and repair trains.
On the internet, web pages are only one of the many kinds of traffic that run on its virtual tracks. Other types of traffic include music files being exchanged via peer-to-peer networking, or from the iTunes store; movie files travelling via BitTorrent; software updates; email; instant messages; phone conversations via Skype and other VoIP (internet telephony) services; streaming video and audio; and other stuff too arcane to mention.
And (here's the important bit) there will undoubtedly be other kinds of traffic, stuff we can't possibly have dreamed of yet, running on the internet in 10 years' time.
So the thing to remember is this: the web is huge and very important, but it's just one of the many things that run on the internet. The net is much bigger and far more important than anything that travels on it.
Understand this simple distinction and you're halfway to wisdom.
3 DISRUPTION IS A FEATURE, NOT A BUG
One of the things that most baffles (and troubles) people about the net is its capacity for disruption. One moment you've got a stable, profitable business – say, as the CEO of a music label; the next minute your industry is struggling for survival, and you're paying a king's ransom to intellectual property lawyers in a losing struggle to stem the tide. Or you're a newspaper group, wondering how a solid revenue stream from classified ads could suddenly have vaporised; or a university librarian wondering why students use only Google nowadays. How can this stuff happen? And how does it happen so fast?
The answer lies deep in the network's architecture. When it was being created in the 1970s, Vint Cerf and Robert Kahn, the lead designers, were faced with two difficult tasks: how to design a system that seamlessly links lots of other networks, and how to design a network that is future-proof. The answer they came up with was breathtakingly simple. It was based on two axioms. Firstly, there should be no central ownership or control – no institution which would decide who could join or what the network could be used for. Secondly, the network should not be optimised for any particular application. This led to the idea of a "simple" network that did only one thing – take in data packets at one end and do its best to deliver them to their destinations. The network would be neutral as to the content of those packets – they could be fragments of email, porn videos, phone conversations, images… The network didn't care, and would treat them all equally.
By implementing these twin protocols, Vint Cerf and Robert Kahn created what was essentially a global machine for springing surprises. The implication of their design was that if you had an idea that could be implemented using data packets, then the internet would do it for you, no questions asked. And you didn't have to ask anyone's permission.
The explosion of creativity – in the form of disruptive applications – that the world has seen since the network emerged in the 1980s may have taken a lot of institutions and industries by surprise, but it was predictable, given the architecture. There are a lot of smart programmers in the world, and the net provided them with a perfect launch pad for springing surprises. What kinds of surprises? Well, the web itself. It was largely the creation of a single individual – Tim Berners-Lee, who in 1991 put the code on an internet server without having to ask anyone's permission.
Ten years after Berners-Lee started work, a disaffected, music-loving teenager named Shawn Fanning spent six months writing software for sharing music files and, in 1999, put his little surprise on an internet server. He called it Napster and it acquired over 60 million delighted users before the music industry managed to shut it down. But by that time the file-sharing genie was out of the bottle.
While all this was going on, plenty of equally smart programmers were incubating more sinister surprises, in the shape of a plague of spam, viruses, worms and other security "exploits" which they have been able to unleash over a network which doesn't care what's in your data packets. The potential dangers of this "malware" explosion are alarming. For example, mysterious groups have assembled "botnets" (made up of millions of covertly compromised, networked PCs) which could be used to launch massive, co-ordinated attacks that could conceivably bring down the network infrastructure of entire industries, or perhaps even countries. So far, with the exception of Estonia in 2007, we haven't seen such an attack, but the fear is that it will eventually come, and it will be the net's own version of 9/11.
The internet's disruptiveness is a consequence of its technical DNA. In programmers' parlance, it's a feature, not a bug – ie an intentional facility, not a mistake. And it's difficult to see how we could disable the network's facility for generating unpleasant surprises without also disabling the other forms of creativity it engenders.
4 THINK ECOLOGY, NOT ECONOMICS
As an analytical framework, economics can come unstuck when dealing with the net. Because while economics is the study of the allocation of scarce resources, the online world is distinguished by abundance. Similarly, ecology (the study of natural systems) specialises in abundance, and it can be useful to look at what's happening in the media through the eyes of an ecologist.
Since the web went mainstream in 1993, our media "ecosystem", if you like, has become immeasurably more complex. The old, industrialised, mass-media ecosystem was characterised by declining rates of growth; relatively small numbers of powerful, profitable, slow-moving publishers and broadcasters; mass audiences consisting mainly of passive consumers of centrally produced content; relatively few communication channels, and a slow pace of change. The new ecosystem is expanding rapidly: it has millions of publishers; billions of active, web-savvy, highly informed readers, listeners and viewers; innumerable communication channels, and a dizzying rate of change.
To an ecologist, this looks like an ecosystem whose biodiversity has expanded radically. It's as if a world in which large organisms like dinosaurs (think Time Warner, Encyclopaedia Britannica) had trudged slowly across the landscape exchanging information in large, discrete units, but life was now morphing into an ecosystem in which billions of smaller species consume, transform, aggregate or break down and exchange information goods in much smaller units – and in which new gigantic life-forms (think Google, Facebook) are emerging. In the natural world, increased biodiversity is closely correlated with higher whole-system productivity – ie the rate at which energy and material inputs are translated into growth. Could it be that this is also happening in the information sphere? And if it is, who will benefit in the long term?
5 COMPLEXITY IS THE NEW REALITY
Even if you don't accept the ecological metaphor, there's no doubt that our emerging information environment is more complex – in terms of numbers of participants, the density of interactions between them, and the pace of change – than anything that has gone before. This complexity is not an aberration or something to be wished away: it's the new reality, and one that we have to address. This is a challenge, for several reasons. First, the behaviour of complex systems is often difficult to understand and even harder to predict. Second, and more importantly, our collective mindsets in industry and government are not well adapted for dealing with complexity. Traditionally, organisations have tried to deal with the problem by reducing complexity – acquiring competitors, locking in customers, producing standardised products and services, etc. These strategies are unlikely to work in our emerging environment, where intelligence, agility, responsiveness and a willingness to experiment (and fail) provide better strategies for dealing with what the networked environment will throw at you.
6 THE NETWORK IS NOW THE COMPUTER
For baby-boomers, a computer was a standalone PC running Microsoft software. Eventually, these devices were networked, first locally (via office networks) and then globally (via the internet). But as broadband connections to the net became commonplace, something strange happened: if you had a fast enough connection to the network, you became less concerned about the precise location of either your stored data or the processor that was performing computational tasks for you. And these tasks became easier to do. First, the companies (Yahoo, Google, Microsoft) who provided search also began to offer "webmail" – email provided via programs that ran not on your PC but on servers in the internet "cloud". Then Google offered word-processing, spreadsheets, slide-making and other "office"-type services over the network. And so on.
Here was a transition from a world in which the PC really was the computer, to one in which the network is effectively the computer. It has led to the emergence of "cloud computing" – a technology in which we use simple devices (mobile phones, low-power laptops or tablets) to access computing services that are provided by powerful servers somewhere on the net. This switch to computing as a utility rather than a service that you provide with your own equipment has profound implications for privacy, security and economic development – and public perceptions are lagging way behind the pace of development. What happens to your family's photo collection if it's held in the cloud and your password goes to the grave with you? And what about your documents and emails – all likewise stored in the cloud on someone else's server? Or your "reputation" on eBay? Everywhere one looks, the transition to cloud computing has profound implications, because it makes us more and more dependent on the net. And yet we're sleepwalking into this brave new world.
7 THE WEB IS CHANGING
Once upon a time, the web was merely a publication medium, in which publishers (professional or amateur) uploaded passive web pages to servers. For many people in the media business, that's still their mental model of the web. But in fact, the web has gone through at least three phases of evolution – from the original web 1.0, to the web 2.0 of "small pieces, loosely joined" (social networking, mashups, webmail, and so on) and is now heading towards some kind of web 3.0 – a global platform based on Tim Berners-Lee's idea of the 'semantic web' in which web pages will contain enough metadata about their content to enable software to make informed judgements about their relevance and function. If we are to understand the web as it is, rather than as it once was, we need more realistic mental models of it. Above all, we need to remember that it's no longer just a publication medium.
8 HUXLEY AND ORWELL ARE THE BOOKENDS OF OUR FUTURE
Many years ago, the cultural critic Neil Postman, one of the 20th century's most perceptive critics of technology, predicted that the insights of two writers would, like a pair of bookends, bracket our future. Aldous Huxley believed that we would be destroyed by the things we love, while George Orwell thought we would be destroyed by the things we fear.
Postman was writing before the internet became such a force in our societies, but I believe he got it right. On the one (Huxleyan) hand, the net has been a profoundly liberating influence in our lives – creating endless opportunities for information, entertainment, pleasure, delight, communication, and apparently effortless consumption, to the point where it has acquired quasi-addictive power, especially over younger generations. One can calibrate the extent of the impact by the growing levels of concern among teachers, governments and politicians. "Is Google making us stupid?" was the title of one of the most cited articles in Atlantic magazine in 2008. It was written by Nicholas Carr, a prominent blogger and author, and raised the question of whether permanent access to networked information (not just Google) is turning us into restless, shallow thinkers with shorter attention spans. (According to Nielsen, a market research firm, the average time spent viewing a web page is 56 seconds.) Other critics are worried that incessant internet use is actually rewiring our brains.
On the other (Orwellian) hand, the internet is the nearest thing to a perfect surveillance machine the world has ever seen. Everything you do on the net is logged – every email you send, every website you visit, every file you download, every search you conduct is recorded and filed somewhere, either on the servers of your internet service provider or of the cloud services that you access. As a tool for a totalitarian government interested in the behaviour, social activities and thought-process of its subjects, the internet is just about perfect.
9 OUR INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY REGIME IS NO LONGER FIT FOR PURPOSE
In the analogue world, copying was difficult and degenerative (ie copies of copies became progressively worse than the original). In the digital world, copying is effortless and perfect. In fact, copying is to computers as breathing is to living organisms, inasmuch as all computational operations involve it. When you view a web page, for example, a copy of the page is loaded into the video memory of your computer (or phone, or iPad) before the device can display it on the screen. So you can't even look at something on the web without (unknowingly) making a copy of it.
Since our current intellectual property regime was conceived in an era when copying was difficult and imperfect, it's not surprising that it seems increasingly out of sync with the networked world. To make matters worse (or better, depending on your point of view), digital technology has provided internet users with software tools which make it trivially easy to copy, edit, remix and publish anything that is available in digital form – which means nearly everything, nowadays. As a result, millions of people have become "publishers" in the sense that their creations are globally published on platforms such as Blogger, Flickr and YouTube. So everywhere one looks, one finds things that infringe copyright in one way or another.
This is a disagreeable but inescapable fact – as inescapable in its way as the fact that young adults tend to drink too much alcohol. The only way to stop copying is to shut down the net. There's nothing wrong with intellectual property (or alcohol), per se, but our copyright laws are now so laughably out of touch with reality that they are falling into disrepute. They urgently need reforming to make them relevant to digital circumstances. The problem is that none of our legislators seems to understand this, so it won't happen any time soon.
Postscript
It would be ridiculous to pretend that these nine ideas encapsulate everything that there is to be known about the net. But they do provide a framework for seeing the phenomenon "in the round", as it were, and might even serve as an antidote to the fevered extrapolation that often passes for commentary on developments in cyberspace. The sad fact is that if there is a "truth" about the internet, it's rather prosaic: to almost every big question about the network's long-term implications the only rational answer is the one famously given by Mao Zedong's foreign minister, Zhou Enlai, when asked about the significance of the French Revolution: "It's too early to say." It is.
John Naughton is professor of the public understanding of technology at the Open University. He is currently working on a book about the internet phenomenon.
Comments in chronological order (Total 143 comments)
20 June 2010 12:26AM
ugh?
20 June 2010 12:41AM
Finger on the pulse as usual, Guardian.
20 June 2010 12:49AM
I got to number 6. Sorry that wasn't very interesting...
20 June 2010 12:51AM
There's two extremes to buying music via the internet: paying for basically the full price that would cost for a physical CD, plastic jewel case, liner notes and all that seems really absurd considering the music exists as one or two GB's worth of space and nothing else. And then there's websites like Rhapsody or the service with sonys Zune where you pay a monthly fee for unlimited music, but only ever having access via the subscription duration.
One extreme is absurdly capitalist, or capitalism run absurd. The other is just silly. Maybe it's just me but if these big, dumb, close to extinction major labels cut the price of electronic music downloads in half, at least gives us half, then maybe people would have a better time swallowing the price than going off an illegally downloading left and right.
20 June 2010 1:03AM
Very good article, I wish people would be more level-headed about this new technology but also attempt to embrace and hasten the positive effects of the internet. Rather than negatively attempt to shut-down bad aspects we should try to enhance and promote the good. This article is a good starting point.
20 June 2010 1:18AM
Thank god I'm young. I knew all this already :D
20 June 2010 1:20AM
Thank god I'm young. I knew all this already :D
20 June 2010 1:23AM
Speak for yourself.
I loves the internet. Infact I find it bloody amazing most of the time. Maybe it's because I'm old enough to remember trying to book cinema tickets off teletext...
20 June 2010 1:26AM
Fascinating stuff. This is the first time I have read a distinction between internet and web, a mistake I have been sadly making for about 11 years now.
The most amazing thing about the web is how it is the explanation for upsurges in so many trends - good or bad. Yet it has a paradoxical quality of now offering people channels to find similarly minded individuals while isolating us.
I can imagine Karl Marx would have had a field day predicting the impact the internet and web would have had on lives.
20 June 2010 1:31AM
It's the illusion of the new. The Internet is largely the equivalent of Hogarth's Gin Alley: everybody's doing it, but the outcome is chaos. The Internet brought with it the dream of democratisation; of knowledge, of production and tools. As in music, what's actually happened is that the web is awash with humungous quantities of indifferent musics, created in bedrooms and utterly unmonetizable, whilst musicians have been hothoused to be ever more perfectionist, the X-Factor a bar raised so high that only a few morbidly ambitious can hope to compete. As in Disney's The Incredibles, when everybody has super powers, nobody does.
It's not Google that's making people dumb. People were always dumb. It's just making the dumbness visible in all its awful majesty.
20 June 2010 1:34AM
Professor Philip Zimbardo (Stanford) gave this talk below at the Royal Society of the Arts (RSA) about our current changing relationship with time - mediated by technology. The animated talk is deeply convincing and deeply worrying.
RSA Animated - The Secret Powers of Time
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3oIiH7BLmg
20 June 2010 1:43AM
Great article, thank you. The thing that struck me the most:
"While economics is the study of the allocation of scarce resources, the online world is distinguished by abundance."
The thing we're beginning to realise with technological progress is that resources are in fact not scarce but abundant - it's our outdated economic system which makes them necessarily scarce by design, thereby producing poverty, war, crime, and actually the vast majority of social problems. Until we start to redesign our economic system into one which replicates the system of abundance of the online world, these social problems will never go away. The internet is one of the technologies that will unleash us from our outdated and sick traditions and problems.
A resource based economy does exactly that, and we need to start talking about it before it's too late. Mr Naughton, your article was so in touch and free thinking I suggest you write about it, it will blow your mind.
20 June 2010 1:56AM
This notion of web 3.0 where we all belong to the one digital organism whether we want to or not is significant – a species' solution or a species problem and quick demise? It's similar to Lovelock's Gaia theory. The planet may decide to turn off the switch, but we have nowhere to go. In 1927 Alfred Traeger invented the first pedal powered generator for sending Morse code to the newly formed Flying Doctor service in Australia. I have this vision that a few years down the road, billions of humans will be pedalling away desperately trying to keep the internet afloat.
20 June 2010 2:02AM
Well written and insightful article. Note to Guardian: More articles like this one.
20 June 2010 2:02AM
ISP owners tell me that >99% of email traffic is spam. I don't know what proportion of internet traffic is email but it strikes me that given the resources that are required to power the net that the 99% represents a major mis-use of energy - accelerating our using up of fossil fuels, and no politician seems to be paying any attention to this issue.
Is this correct, or am I missing something - perhaps email is relatively tiny?
20 June 2010 2:02AM
"The internet is one of the technologies that will unleash us from our outdated and sick traditions and problems."
sorry the internet exists by virtue of electricity - no power no internet.
20 June 2010 2:04AM
This article reads as if it is written by an 80 year old for other 80 year olds. Something to talk about at bingo.
20 June 2010 2:04AM
btw - you may not believe the >99% figure if you go by your email, but what you see is only a fraction of that which is pre-filtered either by your ISP or if using web-mail, by the service provider (ie Yahoo)
20 June 2010 2:06AM
Agree 100%. I have been saying this on Cif for ages. Huxley was right, it is the pursuit of pleasure which is destroying us.
Take for example, many of my generations disengagement witht the political process. Sure we have iplayer, xbox, entertainemnt on demand, but many of my firends and peers live completely parrallel to the political, social and cultural processes if this country.
20 June 2010 2:14AM
An enlightening read that captures so many of my thoughts and wonderings about where we are headed. I use the introduction of printing to the masses as my reference point in history also - still have no answers though! The exponential effect is surely so great now with the speed of information sharing that it is impossible (and exciting) to know what surprises are coming.
20 June 2010 2:14AM
Electricity isn't a tradition or a problem.
20 June 2010 2:17AM
First things first. Has it ever occurred to anyone that it is the Internet that is stirring up trouble? Remember John Naughton, 'talk is cheap'. They are not interested in the wider issue. They just want a stick to beat the web with. Very likely.
20 June 2010 2:21AM
The internet/web is nothing but pay TV and the 'phone re-invented. You can forget about it being useful for much, except convenient spying on us proles.
20 June 2010 2:38AM
Whit the advent and expansion of the wider use of PCs, of ICT for the first time Mankind has got hold of the computational power to organize and rationalize the information necessary to face the challenges that modern society poses in affecting the environment at large, and as everybody hopefully understands, they are huge, overwhelming, frightening problems; the computational power represented by the Web could very well be used as a platform to help solving the problem of a sensible organization of our impact on the Environment; until now my perception is that all of the Internet users, at any level, with a few exceptions, are still caught in the same old categories of selfishness and of reasoning in terms of their particular turf, in defending their interests as some of the examples put forward by the author underline: the struggle to implement intellectual property is one, and so it is on the opposite side the abuse of peer-to-peer File Transfer, or the abundance of malware, spam E-mail, or the undeniable attempts at cyber war surfacing every now and then. So there is a real danger that heavy handed attempts at strong centralized control are and will be made by the people and the organizations with the power to do so; the only hope rest in the attitude, the culture of the billions of private individuals who would be the victims of such attempts, and in the very nature of the Internet, that does not require, to function, any supervision. But most probably to keep it free and friendly will take some kind of action, of technical defence, as the need for antivirus software well illustrates: without it, it is impossible to surf the Web, in this world…
20 June 2010 2:41AM
One thing is sure Capitalism runs the web,States keep it under scrutiny.Dystopia beckons,the Third World is marginalised and we Europeans wallow in our nauseating technological revolutions.Smash the System.
20 June 2010 2:47AM
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20 June 2010 2:58AM
The net is enroute to connecting up all 6 billion individual minds (via eyes and ears in and mouth and fingers out) to each other. Pretty much instantaneously. By wires or wireless. The Internet is simply the electronic spider web in between them all.
If most people have nothing important to say to each other, so be it.
Some pairs or groups large or small will have plenty to say and plan and act together. No matter where they are at any point in time. For better or worse.
20 June 2010 3:01AM
Is it really necessary to add the iPad?
20 June 2010 3:10AM
A bigger risk to our online freedom of expression than the record companies is the jealous interference of governments who seem to be saying: "Hey! You've got far too much power. You have more power than we do and we're the power which controls your lives."
In the so-called free world Australia is now floating the idea of an unpublished blacklist which will stop adults from viewing what the government considers to be a danger to children. Microsoft is coming up with filters for parents to deploy to this very end. The Australian government media minister, Stephen Conroy, is deaf and blind to the optional sensible prevention methods and unaware of the ultimate ineffectiveness of any mode of Internet censorship. He is a technological ignoramus.
Barack Obama is also threatening the Web with censorship. That is more worrying.
Power to the people! But how do we retain our power? Set up a virtual private network for all those who love freedom?
20 June 2010 3:12AM
2 THE WEB ISN'T THE NET
Aaaaah, technically you might have once been correct - but the term 'web' actually has become interchangeable with 'net'. You were right but now you're wrong.
20 June 2010 3:40AM
The article sees the internet as an ecosystem. Perhaps we could also view the internet as a new means of relating to one another in a myriad of forms, from expressing our ideas and creativity to selling each other objects. After all the internet and its web offspring were (so far) set up by humans for humans as a means of communicating with each other.
So, we're in the process of creating one giant, global HUMAN relationship containing the good, the bad and the ugly. (Like many relationships, it may also requires a good therapist.)
20 June 2010 3:54AM
A very useful article, thanx.
My generation spent the first few years of our working lives using the computers solely as stand-alones or at best connected locally. We saw the progress from LAN to the internet & all the applications that accompanied universal connectivity. This progress went faster & faster as time wore on.
Imagine how much we appreciate from the ease of information connectivity in all that we do today in terms of business & leisure. (My generation had to research our thesis using library material & "inter-library services" & had spent hours in the lower reaches of the university archives searching for material on the subject matter).
Yes, the internet is presently the greatest leap in the progress of mankind. Its become so much part of our lives I simply cannot imagine life without it.
20 June 2010 4:48AM
Who will be benefiting it in the long term?
The survival of the fittest won’t be abolished by humanitarian desires; it is only getting enhanced by our naturalistic designs.
Probably those will be benefiting who are in the position of monopolizing, manipulating, controlling, deception, and censoring the electronic highway and its virtual stations.
One prospect is that the future industrial revolution might happen when all sorts of data could be interfaced (communicated) to some bionic devises (robots) and as the result a great number of human populations would eventually be redundant or terminated for good.
However, more I think about it I realise there is nothing easier and cheaper than creating and disposing of human beings.
The only problems are to speeding up the growth that could be done by hormones and the other thing is how to control mental activities that it could also be done by installing electronic devices in the brain surgically and controlling it via a universal wireless network or biologically disabling that part of DNA which controls the brain activities.
One way or another we are getting there any way.
Oh, yes, the future is great.
Yours faithfully
Dr Frankenstein
20 June 2010 5:16AM
Bullshit. Both terms describe different technologies and protocols, widely held misconceptions about terminology do not alter this.
20 June 2010 6:02AM
@ AlbyMangels
Sorry, but did you actually read the article at all? Or even thought for 5 seconds what people do with the internet today? Jesus, most people wouldn't even be able to do their jobs without it these days.
Utter ignorance....
20 June 2010 6:18AM
There is an enormous difference between industrial age and information age economics. Trying to impose industrial age laws and restriction on information age systems will in the end never work.
This difference was first spelled out in the 1970's by Canadian information age philosopher Gordon B Thompson, then the in-house guru at Bell Northern Labs in Ottawa.
He recognised that industrial age information economics was based on counting carriers. Profit was made by selling and counting carriers... books, phonograph records, tapes, even DVD's. I have a book, I sell it to you. Now you have the book and I have the money, simple.
By contrast, in the information age, the information is stripped off the carriers. Now, when I sell you information, you have the information, but so do I. Now you try to sell it on, and we all have the information. Nothing to count!
This is and will be the basis of information economics now and from now on.
Some will try to turn back the clock with DRM and such, but they will fail. Unless we understand the basis structure, only havoc lies ahead. So said Thompson and he was right.
Thompson, G. B. 1979, Memo from Mercury: Information Technology IS Different, Institute for Research on Public Policy, Montréal, Québec. 1979
20 June 2010 6:44AM
When listing the obvious, do you ever wonder how the Internet might relieve ordinary people of drudge in everyday work? Have you forgotten memex? Don't you see the great opportunity to make hi-tech versions, personal digital machines that do non-creative tasks as easily as playlists provide music.
Of course there is resistance to move away from static words on pages to object oriented word-links in machines. But if people can accept the network is the computer they can accept such animated words as the program. Time to innovate not titillate.
20 June 2010 7:09AM
Not sure I read 9 big ideas there - some passing references to, for example, the belief that Google is making us stupid which Steven Pinker addresses here:
http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/pinker10/pinker10_index.html
How is a semantic clarification between internet infrastructure and the web a big idea?
How about the idea that 'hyperpersonal' computer mediated communication in a many-to-many model is qualitatively different from mediated interpersonal communication in a single-to-many (i.e. 'Old Media) model?
Internet communication (particularly social networking) is more naturally self-reflective, and because of the enhanced opportunities for feedback designed into the system, states and corporations are going to find it much more difficult to set the agenda.
Of course, they'll be working hard to find a way. Some are desperate to overturn the principle of network neutrality aided by general media negativity about the internet.
20 June 2010 7:18AM
Interesting article. Clearly the net is a double edged sword. It has its advantages and disadvantages and it is up to the intelligence of each individual how they use it.
The fact that the net and web are not owned by a single institution is I think a good thing. However the coming cloud is different. How can any individual really trust a private corporation such as Apple or Google with all their personal data? Imagine what would happen say if Rupert Murdoch became a majority shareholder?
The danger lies not in the net, but in the ignorance or intelligence of those who use it.
20 June 2010 7:23AM
The paradigm shift from the industrial age to the information age also assumes a cognitive shift. Internet is perhaps best gauged by a postmodernist sensibility which does not implicitly privilege depth over breadth. We 'surf' the net, we don't plumb its depths, right? As Susan Sontag, Roland Barthes, Baudrillard, et al have pointed out, in the post-Nietzchean world there are no heights or depths, only surfaces. So flatness is the new figure of speech, the mirror is the new metaphor.
20 June 2010 7:48AM
That was an outstanding article. The history of our future will be so rich with primary sources that it will be impossible to generalise.
20 June 2010 7:56AM
"Or imagine what it would be like if, one day, you suddenly found yourself unable to book flights, transfer funds from your bank account, check bus timetables, send email, search Google, call your family using Skype, buy music from Apple or books from Amazon, buy or sell stuff on eBay, watch clips on YouTube or BBC programmes on the iPlayer – or do the 1,001 other things that have become as natural as breathing."
Sound exactly like living in Myanmar.
20 June 2010 8:32AM
> Estonia, one of the most internet-dependent countries on the planet, which in 2007 was more or less shut down for two weeks by a sustained attack on its network infrastructure.
This is a considerable over exaggeration. I was living in Tallinn during this time and using my 8MB connection for hours every day. Sure, some websites were not working like internet banking for local banks and government tourist information sites but to say the country was almost shut down for two weeks is nonsense. The average person hardly noticed it.
20 June 2010 8:35AM
Great article....right on the money...in a world of abundance." filtering down the info to just 9 points is no mean feat! From someone who presents on the impact of the Internet and all that goes with it in the tv/media world this really is brilliant..well done
20 June 2010 8:50AM
If you ask me, the internet will expose democratic government as a fraud in a way impossible before.
People want such different things that it is really impossible to have politics that operates by consent, so all politics is really a small group imposing themselves on a larger group, and always has been.
Now it is just easier to see (banks, etc.).
Ho hum. Bread and circuses, or in Britain lard and gameshows.
20 June 2010 8:51AM
BiN1
How can any individual really trust a private corporation such as Apple or Google with all their personal data?
I don't think that I have any personal data of my own. However there are a lot of organisations that store information about me.
20 June 2010 9:01AM
Good article but there is one big important thing missing on the list of non web traffic that traverses the internet - inter and intra company communications. All companies now use the internet as a connectivity block between offices and partner companies.
This makes the economic impact of any massive internet takedown far bigger than suggested.
20 June 2010 9:19AM
Thank-you. I have always struggled to 'see' the net in the sense of a manageable visualisation - your lucid and wonderfully economical piece has done much to give me a more confident perception of the miracle. I believe that we will either be transformed in a Utopian sense, or destroyed by the Internet, although perhaps not in my baby-boomer life-time.
20 June 2010 9:23AM
May I ask two question more? 1) Is it something essential in the difference between window and the open source? 2) In the google watch over the earth, is it a tool whose use depends on who is using it, or is that use already involves in the domination of google?
20 June 2010 9:25AM
Most media coverage of the internet is negative? The internet can be seen as 'a disaster'?
Really? I don't know a single person who thinks that.